NW7US (Tomas Hood) comments on latest Solar Cycle 24 Prediction (May 2009)

How much credibility should we grant to the panel of solar researchers and scientists that again releases a speculative prediction of the new Solar Cycle (the 24th since accurate solar cycle records have been kept)? Panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center states, "If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78."

NASA's lead representative on the panel, Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, adds, "It turns out that none of our models were totally correct... The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

What I find entertaining is the self-importance prevalent in the solar science community, by both professional and some amateur participants. Pesnell states the obvious, "In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it."

Yeah, how many solar cycles can one experience during their professional life? The average cycle lasts between 11 and 12 years in length. But the sun is millions of years old. In my view, it is pretty arrogant to postulate that mankind has any real understanding and handle on what the sun might do next. Pesnell, again: "Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013, but use a pencil."

If none of the models are totally correct, how are they making this current prediction with such dismal expectations? I'm not holding my breath in favor of supporting any of the predictions, at this point.

No one can postulate with any credibility just how intense the new cycle will be, because there's no direct correlation between this solar minimum and any regular pattern of past minimums. In 2008 and 2009, the sun was quieter than any period during the 'Space Age' (again, a very short time of reference in relation to the millions of years of solar history). During the last two years, we've seen low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, low solar irradiance, and a period without a significant solar flare.

What does all of this mean in the real world of amateur communications? With the slow yet sure increase in solar activity during recent months as seen with the emergence of more frequent small sunspots (many of which are new cycle spots) and 'proto-sunspots', there is hope that the sun is waking, at least. Other evidence that the sun is experiencing an increase in solar cycle activity is the 'zonal flows' (enormous currents of plasma on the sun's surface) that are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun's equator. Tiny but significant increases in solar radio emissions are being observed. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24.

Even this little of an increase in solar activity has brought some welcomed increase in excitement on the amateur radio bands. With continued very low geomagnetic activity, any slight increase in solar activity that strengthens the ionosphere translates to noticeable enhancements to radiowave propagation over many radio paths on the middle to low HF (high-frequency) bands.

The Panel expects another year of very quiet conditions. They expect the cycle to peak in 2013, which means a rapid rise in activity between 2010 and 2013. Whatever the final level of activity, one thing will likely happen: a rapid and chaotic rise in geomagnetic activity, at times at major storm levels, will occur. Enjoy the unique propagation opportunities currently presenting themselves during this quiet phase, because the game will change in the next few years, regardless of whose predictions hold true.

Prepare now for whatever the sun will do, by honing your radio skills, increasing the efficiency of your antenna system, and participate in the on-the-air opportunities to be a part of the solar cycle story. As the story unfolds, be an active player and record as best you can your activity, what the sun is doing. I keep a log of all the solar data, on a daily basis, and I record my contacts made, antenna and power used, modes, and other observations. This information might reveal new and interesting facts as we journey forward in this new solar cycle.

-- Tomas David Hood, NW7US - May 29, 2009

NEW COMMENTS: July 10, 2009

A lot of speculation has been circulating about how the current solar cycle minimum is going to last years and years, like another "Maunder Minimum" of 1645-1715. I have commented before that I don't believe in these dismal forecasts. The research being revealed recently, as well as the current increase in sunspot activity, bears out my prognosis: the new Cycle 24 is alive and sunspot activity will pick up energy as 2009 progresses forward.

So, what is science telling us? Why has Cycle 24 been so slow in starting? The answer, in part, is that the mechanisms within the complex Sun are just a bit slower this time around than in the last few solar cycle minimums. One major part of this dynamic mechanism is the Sun's jet stream.

Did you know that the sun has jet streams? Recent research now reveals a powerful dynamic deep inside the sun. Scientists from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona have discovered that deep inside the sun a powerful solar jet stream migrates through the star's interior.

During this current solar cycle minimum, this solar jet stream moved more slowly than in recent past minimum periods. This appears to be the underlying reason for the long period that lacked sunspots and prolonged the solar minimum. The scientists involved in this discovery presented their research at the meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society (AAS/SPD) in June 2009.

Drs. Rachel Howe and Frank Hill, both of the NSO, used long-term observations from the NSO's Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) facility to detect and track an east-to-west jet stream, known as the "torsional oscillation," at depths of about 1000 to 7000 km below the surface of the sun. The sun generates new jet streams near its poles every 11 years; the streams migrate slowly, over a period of 17 years, to the equator and are associated with the production of sunspots once they reach a critical latitude of 22 degrees.

Howe and Hill found that the stream associated with the new solar cycle has moved sluggishly, taking three years to cover a 10-degree range in latitude, compared to two years for the last solar cycle, but has now reached the critical latitude. The current solar minimum has become so long and deep that some scientists have speculated the sun might enter a long period with no sunspot activity at all.

The new result shows both that the Sun's internal magnetic dynamo continues to operate and heralds the beginning of a new cycle of solar activity. "It is exciting to see," said Dr. Hill, "that just as this sluggish stream reaches the usual active latitude of 22 degrees, a year late, we finally begin to see new groups of sunspots emerging at the new active latitude." Since the current minimum is now one year longer than usual, Howe and Hill conclude that the extended solar minimum phase may have resulted from the slower migration of the flow.

Now that this solar jet stream has reached the 'critical' latitude, are we seeing a rise in the number of sunspots? Yes, and the period between sunspot emergences is becoming shorter and shorter. For instance, during the month of June 2009, sunspots were observed on 13 days of the month. Then, starting on July 3, another new Cycle 24 sunspot emerged, daily growing in size and unleashing numerous flares. By the 5th of July, and for the first time in the new cycle, a C-class flare erupted. By July 6th, it was clear that this sunspot group was influencing radio propagation, as the 10.7-cm flux rose above 70, and subtle changes in various modes of propagation were observed. This sunspot group comes as part of a series of new sunspots, indicating that the new cycle is certainly alive and gaining in strength.

Indeed, Sunspot Cycle 24 is increasing in energy and we're in for a nice rise in ionospheric energy. The next few years will be alive with activity.

NEW COMMENTS: October 26, 2009

It just keeps getting better! During the CQ WW Contest weekend, the solar flux climbed into the upper 70's. But, as this week unfolds, the flux climbs, with a current flux of 81! This is the highest recording yet since the first observed 'new cycle sunspot' in January 2008, the "official" visual start of Sunspot Cycle 24. (We'll see where the statistical averaged solar minimum actually occurs).

Speaking of... the monthly observed smoothed count of zero, recorded in August, does not make that the statistical lowest point in the moving average, because the months prior, and the months since, have higher numbers. And, these numbers, except for August, are all increasing, each month. The current sunspot activity is further confirmation that this cycle is, albeit slow, alive and increasing in activity.

DX was great over the weekend. Even 15 meters was hot with activity. This week is one to enjoy - the CME and Flare activity continues to be low to at most moderate, leaving the geomagnetic field mostly stable. This results in fairly normal (non-depressed) ionospheric conditions.

This is an exciting start to the Autumn DX season!